Polski
Cocoa Prices Hit an All-Time High: The Confectionery Industry Searches for a New Balance
Cocoa prices have been keeping pastry chefs, chocolatiers, and confectionery producers on edge for months now, all around the world. This week brings three market signals that together show where things are heading — from poor harvest forecasts in West Africa, through belt-tightening at the world's largest cocoa processor, to one of the confectionery giants shifting back into expansion mode. Let's take a look at what this means for the industry.
01 · Raw Materials
Ghana Could Lose Up to a Third of Its Cocoa Harvest
Let's start with the root of the problem. According to forecasts cited by CNBC Africa, cocoa production in Ghana in the 2026/27 season could fall by as much as 18-38%, down to 470,000-620,000 tonnes from 760,000 tonnes a year earlier [1]. There are several reasons at once: aging plantations, diseases such as swollen shoot, unusual pollination problems, and the effects of El Niño combined with excessive rainfall in May and June [1]. The impact is already visible on the exchanges — since June, cocoa prices in London and New York have risen by 75-80% [1]. For Polish patisseries and chocolatiers, this isn't a distant African problem but a real increase in the cost of a basic raw material that they'll have to contend with in the coming seasons.
02 · Supplier Strategy
Barry Callebaut Tightens Its Belt and Seeks New Partnerships
Price pressure is also hitting the market's biggest players. At the Barclays conference on September 8, 2026, Barry Callebaut presented a tightened strategy aimed at restoring operational discipline and improving customer service [2]. The company has been struggling with margin pressure for some time now — cocoa prices have significantly exceeded planning assumptions, reaching around $4,500 per tonne versus the assumed $3,000 [2]. As a result, Barry Callebaut lowered its forecasts for 2026. Interestingly, though, at the same time the company announced a new three-year partnership with Arla Foods for low-emission milk powder used in chocolate production [2]. This is a signal that even in a difficult pricing environment, the biggest suppliers aren't giving up on sustainability investments — and sooner or later, that will translate into offerings available to smaller customers in Europe as well.
03 · Market Expansion
Mondelez Returns to Expansion Mode
Against this backdrop, Mondelez's move looks interesting — on September 10, 2026, the company announced a shift toward aggressive investment in its core brands: Cadbury, Oreo, Milka, and Ritz [3]. The company attributes this decision to the cocoa market stabilizing and prices in the industry becoming more rational [3]. Plans include expanding distribution in India and China, new Oreo formats in North America, and a global relaunch of the Oreo brand planned for 2027, with new packaging and pricing [3]. In Europe, meanwhile, Mondelez is betting on premiumization, pointing to the success of its collaboration with the Biscoff brand [3]. This is the clearest signal in a long time from one of the confectionery giants that the cocoa crisis may already have passed its worst point — and premiumization trends and new product formats will sooner or later reach Polish shelves and patisseries too.
Summary
Summary
This week shows the confectionery industry pulled in two directions: on one hand, a still-tense raw materials market and the risk of further cocoa price increases; on the other, the first signs that the biggest players are starting to play offense, investing in sustainable partnerships and new premium products. For Polish patisseries, bakeries, ice cream parlors, and cafés, this is a signal to start thinking now about supplier diversification and pricing strategies for the coming season. Want to discuss this with raw material and technology suppliers from across Europe? Let's meet at Warsaw Sweet Tech - the International Trade Fair for Solutions for the Confectionery, Café, Bakery and Ice Cream Industries.
Invitation
Cocoa prices, new supplier strategies, and confectionery giants returning to expansion mode - these are just some of the topics we'll cover at Warsaw Sweet Tech. Meet producers of raw materials, machinery, and technology for the confectionery, bakery, ice cream, and café industries, and find out how to prepare your business for the coming season. Book your spot today.
Warsaw Sweet TechFootnotes
[1] CNBC Africa — https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2026/ghanas-26-27-cocoa-output-seen-declining-on-weather-disease[2] ad-hoc-news.de — https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/barry-callebaut-stock-gains-as-sustainability-partnership-and-cocoa/70084285
[3] FoodNavigator — https://www.foodnavigator.com/Article/2026/09/10/mondelez-ramps-up-investment-to-fuel-next-phase-of-growth/